Weather predicting method, water predicting apparatus,  and air utilizing apparatus

ABSTRACT

A weather predicting method is provided and includes: selecting, from weather information including temperature data and related to times and areas, a weather information related to an area containing a location where an air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to multiple times over a certain period; by solving, with weather information as input data, differential equations expressing weather information based on weather analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, generating first narrow-area weather information related to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the weather information; selecting a second narrow-area weather information concerning an area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus from among the first narrow-area weather information; and generating a temperature cumulative distribution or a temperature exceedance probability distribution over a certain period by using temperature data contained in the second narrow-area weather information for calculating a design temperature of the air utilizing apparatus.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The present invention relates to a weather predicting method and aweather predicting apparatus for reproducing, by using past weatherdata, weather data in an area which is smaller than an areacorresponding to the past weather data. More particularly, the inventionrelates to a weather predicting method and a weather predictingapparatus for reproducing weather data in order to design an airutilizing apparatus to be placed in a location in which weatherobservation data is not available, and also to such an air utilizingapparatus.

BACKGROUND ART

An air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influenceof surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as a heatingenergy source or a cooling energy source, a power source, and/or areactant is known. As an air utilizing apparatus which utilizes air as acooling energy source, an air fin cooler, for example, is known. As anair utilizing apparatus which utilizes air as a power source, a windpower generator is known. As an air utilizing apparatus which utilizesair as a reactant, a gas turbine causing combustion reaction or areactor causing oxidation reforming reaction is known.

In these air utilizing apparatuses, a required amount of heat and outputenergy significantly differ depending on the velocity and the volume ofair and so on.

Depending on the direction of the wind in an area in which an air fincooler is placed, discharged gas may be likely to return to a suctionside of the air fin cooler. Moreover, if the combustion gas in a gasturbine is returned to a suction side, the performance is significantlydecreased.

Additionally, in a wind power generator, unless a desired air volume andvelocity is obtained, a desired level of power is not output.

For example, the amount of gas exhausted from a gas turbine is afunction of weather conditions (temperature, atmospheric pressure, andhumidity) at a location in which the gas turbine is placed. Accordingly,a method of estimating an amount of gas emitted from a gas turbine bygenerating an emission amount output report including emission levels onthe basis of a plurality of items of weather data is disclosed (seebelow, Patent Literature 1). In the disclosed estimating method, when auser wishes to obtain predictions of weather conditions, an access ismade to, for example, a third-party weather system, and data fromweather services is interpolated together with received data, therebypredicting weather conditions around the gas turbine. In the disclosedestimating method, the weather is forecast in this manner if futureweather data is not available.

Weather forecasts utilizing weather simulations (see below, PatentLiterature 2), or technologies concerning the prediction of thediffusion of radioactive materials (see below, Patent Literature 3) arealso disclosed.

PRIOR ART DOCUMENT Patent Literature

Patent Literature 1: Japanese Patent Application Laid-open PublicationNo. 2009-62983

Patent Literature 2: Japanese Patent Application Laid-open PublicationNo. 2010-60443

Patent Literature 3: Japanese Patent Application Laid-open PublicationNo. 2005-283202

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION Technical Problem

As described above, when measuring the temperature and the direction ofthe wind in an area in which an air utilizing apparatus will be placed,measurements over several years are required since it is necessary todesign an air utilizing apparatus by considering the influence of anannual change, such as whether or not the El Nino phenomenon isobserved. However, if there is no data over the years, an air utilizingapparatus has to be designed on the basis of low-precision environmentaldata, since it is difficult to measure the temperature and the directionof the wind for several years in future from a present time point.

Patent Literature 1 discloses that certain measures are taken in advanceby utilizing weather information so as to prevent the occurrence of thelean blowout in a combustion system during the operation for decreasingthe emission amount of NOx. An object of Patent Literature 2 or PatentLiterature 3 is to predict future weather conditions, such as toforecast the weather or to predict the diffusion of dangerous materials.Accordingly, Patent Literature 1 through Patent Literature 3 do notwhatsoever disclose that the weather is predicted by utilizing weathersimulations for the purpose of designing an air utilizing apparatus.

In one aspect of the present invention, it is an object of the inventionto obtain the direction of the wind necessary for designing an airutilizing apparatus, on the basis of the weather which is predicted byconducting simulations of the weather in an area which includes alocation at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed, by the use of,as input data, weather information related to the area which includesthe location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed and relatedto a plurality of times over a certain period, even if weather dataconcerning the location of the air utilizing apparatus is not available.

Solution to Problem

Embodiments to solve the above mentioned problems are realized as asystem on chip device shown in the following item sets.

1. A weather predicting method for predicting the weather by conductingweather simulations in order to design an air utilizing apparatus whichis placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditionsand which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, a powersource, and a reactant, the weather predicting method including:

selecting, from a plurality of items of weather information whichincludes at least wind direction data and which is related to times andareas, a set of items of weather information related to an areacontaining a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed andrelated to a plurality of times over a certain period;

by solving, with the use of each item of the set of the items of weatherinformation as input data, differential equations expressing the weatherinformation based on weather analysis models used for conducting weathersimulations, generating a set of items of first narrow-area weatherinformation related to areas smaller than the area corresponding to theweather information;

selecting a set of items of second narrow-area weather informationconcerning an area containing the location of the air utilizingapparatus from among the items of first narrow-area weather information;and

calculating a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency byusing wind direction data contained in the set of the items of secondnarrow-area weather information in order to determine a direction inwhich the air utilizing apparatus is placed.

2. The weather predicting method according to item 1, wherein, on thebasis of the calculated wind direction, a layout in which the airutilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gas discharged from adischarge unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a windward sidewill not be sucked by a suction unit of the air utilizing apparatuslocated on a leeward side is generated.

3. The weather predicting method according to item 1 or 2, wherein astep of generating the set of the items of first narrow-area weatherinformation further includes recalculating the set of the items of firstnarrow-area weather information by using observation data indicating atleast one of a wind direction, a wind speed, and a temperature in thearea corresponding to the weather information.

4. The weather predicting method according to any one of items 1 to 3,further including:

calculating meteorological field information concerning an area smallerthan the area corresponding to the second narrow-area weatherinformation by computing the second narrow-area weather information byusing three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations; and

calculating, by using the meteorological field information, a flow inwhich heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returnedto the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus.

5. The weather predicting method according to any one of items 1 to 4,further including:

recalculating, if topographical features of an area in which the airutilizing apparatus is placed are different from topographical featuresdescribed in the weather information due to a reason of one of landleveling, land use, and equipment installation, the set of the items offirst narrow-area weather information on the basis of topographicalinformation reflecting a result of associated one of the land leveling,the land use, and the equipment installation.

6. The weather predicting method according to any one of items 1 to 5,wherein the first narrow-area weather information and the secondnarrow-area weather information are three-dimensional data, and indicateat least one of wind direction, wind speed, turbulence energy, solarradiation, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity, andtemperature.

7. A weather predicting apparatus for predicting the weather byconducting weather simulations in order to design an air utilizingapparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surroundingweather conditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energysource, a power source, and a reactant, the weather predicting apparatusincluding:

a storage section that stores therein a set of items of weatherinformation obtained from a plurality of items of weather informationwhich includes at least wind direction data and which is related totimes and areas, the set of items of weather information being relatedto an area containing a location at which the air utilizing apparatus isplaced and related to a plurality of times over a certain period; and

a processor that selects the set of items of weather information,generates a set of items of first narrow-area weather informationrelated to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the weatherinformation by solving, with the use of each item of the set of theitems of weather information as input data, differential equationsexpressing the weather information based on weather analysis models usedfor conducting weather simulations, selects a set of items of secondnarrow-area weather information concerning an area containing thelocation of the air utilizing apparatus from among the items of firstnarrow-area weather information, and calculates a wind direction havingthe highest cumulative frequency by using wind direction data containedin the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information inorder to determine a direction in which the air utilizing apparatus isplaced.

8. The weather predicting apparatus according to item 7, wherein, on thebasis of the calculated wind direction, the processor generates a layoutin which the air utilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gasdischarged from a discharge unit of the air utilizing apparatus locatedon a windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the airutilizing apparatus located on a leeward side.

9. The weather predicting apparatus according to item 7 or 8, whereinthe processor recalculates, in a step of generating the set of the itemsof first narrow-area weather information, the set of the items of firstnarrow-area weather information by using observation data indicating atleast one of a wind direction, a wind speed, and a temperature in thearea corresponding to the weather information.

10. The weather predicting apparatus according to any one of items 7 to9, wherein the processor calculates meteorological field informationconcerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the weatherdata by computing the second narrow-area weather information by usingthree-dimensional fluid dynamic equations, and calculates, by using themeteorological field information, a flow in which heated air dischargedfrom the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of theair utilizing apparatus.

11. The weather predicting apparatus according to any one of items 7 to10, further including:

recalculating, if topographical features of an area in which the airutilizing apparatus is placed are different from topographical featuresdescribed in the weather information due to a reason of one of landleveling, land use, and equipment installation, the set of the items offirst narrow-area weather information on the basis of topographicalinformation reflecting a result of associated one of the land leveling,the land use, and the equipment installation.

12. The weather predicting apparatus according to any one of items 7 to11, wherein the first narrow-area weather information and the secondnarrow-area weather information are three-dimensional data, and indicateat least one of wind direction, wind speed, turbulence energy, solarradiation, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity, andtemperature.

13. An air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under theinfluence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air asone of a heating energy source, a power source, and a reactant, the airutilizing apparatus including:

a suction unit that sucks the air;

an operation unit that performs one of heat exchange, reaction, andpower recovery by using the air sucked by the suction unit; and

a discharge unit that discharges gas emitted through one of operationsof heat exchange, reaction, and power recovery, wherein:

from a plurality of items of weather information which includes at leastwind direction data and which is related to times and areas, a set ofitems of weather information related to an area containing a location atwhich the air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to a pluralityof times over a certain period are selected;

by solving, with the use of each item of the set of the items of weatherinformation as input data, differential equations expressing the weatherinformation based on weather analysis models used for conducting weathersimulations, a set of items of first narrow-area weather informationrelated to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the weatherinformation is generated;

a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning anarea containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus is selectedfrom among the items of first narrow-area weather information; and

the air utilizing apparatus is placed in the area on the basis of a winddirection having the highest cumulative frequency calculated by usingwind direction data contained in the set of the items of secondnarrow-area weather information.

14. The air utilizing apparatus according to item 13, wherein the airutilizing apparatus is placed such that gas discharged from thedischarge unit located on a windward side indicated in the winddirection data included in the set of the items of second narrow-areaweather information will not be sucked by the suction unit located on aleeward side indicated in the wind direction data included in the set ofthe items of second narrow-area weather information.

15. The air utilizing apparatus according to item 13 or 14, wherein:

meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than thearea corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information iscalculated by computing the second narrow-area weather information byusing three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations, and by using themeteorological field information, a flow in which heated air dischargedfrom the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of theair utilizing apparatus is calculated; and

the air utilizing apparatus is placed such that the heated airdischarged from the air utilizing apparatus will not be returned to thesuction unit.

Effect of the Invention

In one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to obtain thedirection of the wind necessary for designing an air utilizingapparatus, on the basis of the weather which is predicted by conductingsimulations of the weather in an area which includes a location at whichthe air utilizing apparatus is placed, by the use of, as input data,weather information related to the area which includes the location atwhich the air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to a pluralityof times over a certain period, even if weather data concerning thelocation of the air utilizing apparatus is not available.

It is also possible to provide a layout which is optimal for an airutilizing apparatus and an air utilizing apparatus which is optimallyplaced with respect to the calculated direction of the wind.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 illustrates an example of the functional configuration of aweather predicting apparatus.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example of the hardware configuration of theweather predicting apparatus.

FIG. 3A illustrates an example of an air utilizing apparatus.

FIG. 3B illustrates a specific example of the air utilizing apparatus.

FIG. 3C illustrates another specific example of the air utilizingapparatus.

FIG. 4 illustrates an example of wide-area weather information.

FIG. 5 illustrates an example of narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 6 illustrates an example of meteorological field information.

FIG. 7A illustrates an example of temperature data and an example ofwind speed data obtained from narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 7B illustrates a temperature cumulative distribution obtained fromtemperature data of narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 7C illustrates a temperature frequency probability distributionobtained from temperature data of narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 8 illustrates an example of the relationship between the amount ofliquefied hydrocarbon gas and the design temperature.

FIG. 9 is a wind rose obtained from wind direction data of narrow-areaweather information.

FIG. 10A illustrates the relationship between the prevailing winddirection and air fin coolers.

FIG. 10B illustrates the relationship between the prevailing winddirection and air fin coolers.

FIG. 11A illustrates the relationship between the prevailing winddirection and gas turbines.

FIG. 11B illustrates the relationship between the prevailing winddirection and gas turbines.

FIG. 12A illustrates the relationship between the prevailing winddirection and liquefaction plants.

FIG. 12B illustrates the relationship between the prevailing winddirection and liquefaction plants.

FIG. 13 illustrates an example of a flowchart of temperature analysisand design.

FIG. 14 illustrates an example of a flowchart of wind-direction analysisand design.

DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENTS

With reference to the drawings, descriptions will now be given of: 1.Weather Analysis Models; 2. Computational Fluid Analysis; 3. FunctionalConfiguration and Hardware Configuration of Weather PredictingApparatus; 4. Air Utilizing Apparatus; 5. Prediction of WeatherInformation around Air Utilizing Apparatus; 6. Temperature CumulativeDistribution around Air Utilizing Apparatus; 7. Wind Rose around AirUtilizing Apparatus; 8. Layout in which Air Utilizing Apparatus isArranged and Air Utilizing Apparatus on the basis of the Layout; 9.Flowchart of Temperature Analysis and Design; and 10. Flowchart ofWind-Direction Analysis and Design.

1. Weather Analysis Models

Weather analysis models include various physical models, and byanalyzing such physical models by using a computer, calculations forpredicting the weather having higher spatial resolution are performed,thereby making it possible to conduct weather simulations. Weathersimulations have an advantage over field observation that weatherinformation having higher spatial resolution can be estimated.

In order to conduct weather simulations, it is necessary to load initialvalues and boundary value data from a weather database downloaded from anetwork. A sufficiently detailed spatial resolution for designing an airutilizing apparatus is not available. However, as weather informationconcerning a wide area including an area in which an air utilizingapparatus is placed (hereinafter referred to as a “wide-area weatherinformation”), for example, NCEP (National Centers for EnvironmentalPrediction), which is global observation analysis data reanalyzed everysix hours, provided by, for example, NOAA (National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration), is available. NCEP data as the wide-areaweather information include weather elements (wind direction, windspeed, turbulence energy, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure,precipitation, humidity, and temperature) on three-dimensional gridpoints obtained by dividing the world into a grid pattern (grid spacingis 1.5 km through 400 km), and are updated every six hours. In thisembodiment, it is necessary to design an air utilizing apparatus byconsidering the influence of an annual change, such as whether or notthe El Nino phenomenon is observed. Accordingly, wide-area weatherinformation over the several years (for example, the above-describedNCEP data) is used as initial values and boundary value data.

An example of physical models included in weather analysis models is theWRF (Weather Research & Forecasting Model). The WRF include variousphysical models. Examples of the physical models are radiation modelsfor calculating the amount of solar radiation and the amount ofatmospheric radiation, turbulence models for expressing a turbulencemixed layer, and ground surface models for calculating the groundsurface temperature, soil temperature, field moisture, snowfall amount,and surface flux.

The weather analysis models include partial differential equationsexpressing the motion of fluid in the atmosphere, such as Navier-Stokesequations concerning the motion of fluid and empirical equations derivedfrom atmospheric observation results, and partial differential equationsexpressing the law of conservation of mass and the law of conservationof energy. By solving these simultaneous partial differential equations,weather simulations can be conducted. Thus, by using wide-area weatherinformation as input data, differential equations based on weatheranalysis models for weather simulations are solved, thereby making itpossible to generate weather information concerning a location of an airutilizing apparatus related to an area having a narrower spatialresolution than that of wide-area weather information. Hereinafter,weather information generated in this manner is referred to as“narrow-area weather information”.

2. Computational Fluid Analysis

Computational fluid analysis is a numerical analysis and simulationtechnique for observing the flow of fluid by applying ComputationalFluid Dynamics in which equations concerning the motion of fluid aresolved by using a computer. More specifically, by using Navier-Stokesequations, which are fluid dynamic equations, the state of fluid isspatially calculated by utilizing the Finite Volume Method. Theprocedure for computational fluid analysis includes a step of creating3D model data reflecting a structure of a facility, which is a subjectto be examined, a step of generating grids by dividing a range of thesubject to be examined into grids, which are the minimum calculationunits, a step of loading initial values and boundary values and solvingfluid dynamic equations concerning each grid by using a computer, and astep of outputting various values (flow velocity, pressure, etc.)obtained from analysis results, as images, such as contours and vectors.

By conducting computational fluid analysis, fluid simulations havinghigher resolution than those obtained by weather analysis models can beimplemented. Thus, it is possible to provide information concerning aircurrent phenomena unique to a space scale of a subject to be examined,such as small changes in the wind speed and the wind direction and achange in air current around a building caused by a disturbance of anair current on a scale from several centimeters to several meters, whichare very difficult to predict by weather simulations.

3. Functional Configuration and Hardware Configuration of WeatherPredicting Apparatus

A weather predicting apparatus uses weather analysis models and conductscomputational fluid analysis, thereby calculating narrow-area weatherinformation concerning a narrow area in which an air utilizing apparatusis placed. And, the weather predicting apparatus may also perform designtemperature calculating processing or wind-rose generating processing,which will be discussed later.

FIG. 1 illustrates an example of the functional configuration of aweather predicting apparatus. A weather predicting apparatus 90 shown inFIG. 1 includes a storage section 12 which stores therein data andprograms and a processor 14 which executes arithmetic operations. In thestorage section 12, a weather analysis program 901, such as the WRF, acomputational fluid analysis program 903, a design temperaturecalculating program 905, a wind-rose generating program 907, a layoutoutput program 909 for generating a layout, a weather database 800,wide-area weather information 801, such as NCEP data, narrow-areaweather information 803 obtained by weather simulations, air flow fieldinformation 805 obtained by computational fluid analysis, temperatureanalysis data 807, wind direction analysis data 808, and layout data 809are stored. The weather database stores therein the wide-area weatherinformation 801, which is obtained as a result of downloading it from anexternal source or is obtained from a storage medium.

The processor 14 executes the weather analysis program 901 and therebyperforms weather analysis processing in which the narrow-area weatherinformation 803 is generated from the wide-area weather information 801and is stored in the storage section 12. The processor 14 also executesthe computational fluid analysis program 903 and thereby performscomputational fluid processing in which the air flow field data 807 isgenerated from the narrow-area weather information 803 and is stored inthe storage section 12. Similarly, the processor 14 also executes thedesign temperature calculating program 905 and the wind-rose generatingprogram 907 and thereby performs design temperature calculatingprocessing and wind-rose generating processing, respectively, which willbe discussed later, and displays the related temperature analysis data807 and the related wind direction analysis data 809, respectively, on adisplay section 16 which displays data, such as images.

Further, the processor 14 executes the layout generating program 909 andoutputs the layout data 809 on the basis of the wind direction analysisdata 808.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example of the hardware configuration of theweather predicting apparatus. The weather predicting apparatus 90 shownin FIG. 2 includes a processor 12A, a main storage device 14A, anauxiliary storage device 14B, which is a hard disk or an SSD (SolidState Drive), a drive device 15 that reads data from a storage medium900, and a communication device 19, such as an NIC (network interfacecard). These components are connected to one another via a bus 20. Theweather prediction apparatus 90 is connected to a display 16 and aninput device 17, such as a keyboard and a mouse, which are externallydisposed. The processor 12 shown in FIG. 1 corresponds to the processor12A, and the storage section 14 corresponds to the main storage device14A.

In the storage medium 900, as shown in FIG. 1, the weather database 800,the weather analysis program 901, the computational fluid analysisprogram 903, the design temperature calculating program 905, thewind-rose generating program 907, and the layout generating program 909may be stored as data items. These data items 800 through 909 are storedin the storage section 12, as shown in FIG. 1.

The weather predicting apparatus 90 may be connected to an externalserver 200 or a computer 210 or 220 via a network 40. The computer 210and the external server 200 may have the same components as those of theweather predicting apparatus 90. For example, the weather predictingapparatus 90 may receive the weather database 800 stored in the server200 via the network 40. Alternatively, among the programs shown in FIG.1, only the weather analysis program 901 concerning weather simulationshaving a high system load may be stored in the weather predictingapparatus 90, and the other programs may be stored in any one of thecomputers 210 and 220 and may be executed in the computer 210 or 220.Additionally, a description has been given above in which the weatherpredicting apparatus 90 is restricted to hardware, such as a computer.However, the weather predicting apparatus 90 may be a virtual server ina data center. In this case, the hardware configuration may be asfollows. The programs 901 through 909 may be stored in a storage sectionin a data center, and a processor in the data center may execute thestored programs 901 through 909, and data may be output from the datacenter to a client computer. The external server 200 may include aweather database, in which case, the weather predicting apparatus 90 mayobtain wide-area weather data from the external server 200.

4. Air Utilizing Apparatus

FIG. 3A illustrates an example of an air utilizing apparatus. An airutilizing apparatus 100 shown in FIG. 3A is placed outdoors under theinfluence of surrounding weather conditions and utilizes air as one of aheating energy source, a power source, and a reactant. The air utilizingapparatus 100 includes a suction unit 101 which sucks air, an operationunit 102 which performs one of heat exchange, reaction, and powerrecovery by using air sucked by the suction unit, and a discharge unit103 which discharges gas emitted through one of the operations of heatexchange, reaction, and power recovery, though these elements are notessential components.

FIG. 3B illustrates a specific example of the air utilizing apparatus.FIG. 3B illustrates an air fin cooler 100A and a gas turbine 100B asexamples of the air utilizing apparatus 100. The gas turbine 100Bincludes a suction unit 101B, an operation unit 102B, and a dischargeunit (chimney) 103B. By the use of air sucked by the suction unit 101B,inflammable gas is burned in the operation unit 102B so as to rotate aturbine to generate a driving force, thereby rotating a compressor 110A.The exhaust gas is discharged from the chimney 103B. The gas compressedby the compressor 110A is supplied to the air fin cooler 100A. Theoperation unit 102B shown in FIG. 3B may be a reactor which causesoxidation reforming reaction.

In the air fin cooler 100A, discharged gas heated by the compressor 110is cooled in a heat exchanger 102A by using air sucked through a suctionunit 101A (not shown) provided at the bottom of the air fin cooler 100Aand is discharged to a discharge unit 103A (not shown) provided at thetop of the air fin cooler 100A. The temperature of the compressed gascooled by the air fin cooler 100A is decreased in a cooler 120 due todecompression and expansion, and then, the compressed gas cools asubject medium. The decompressed and heated gas is again returned to thecompressor 110A. In an embodiment, the subject medium to be cooled is,for example, a hydrocarbon gas, such as methane or ethane, and is cooledin the cooler 120 and is thereby liquefied.

The air utilizing apparatus has been discussed through illustration ofone of the air fin cooler and the gas turbine. However, the airutilizing apparatus may be a liquefaction plant for liquefying ahydrocarbon gas, including an air fin cooler and a gas turbine.Hereinafter, an embodiment of the weather predicting apparatus or theweather predicting method through illustration of an air fin cooler, agas turbine, or a liquefaction plant will be described. However, anembodiment of the present invention encompasses an air fin cooler, a gasturbine, and a liquefaction plant based on a layout designed by theweather predicting apparatus or the weather predicting method.

FIG. 3C illustrates another specific example of the air utilizingapparatus. As an example of the air utilizing apparatus, a wind powergenerator 100C is shown. Propellers of the wind power generator 100Ccorrespond to a suction unit 101C and a discharge unit 103C, and a motorcorresponds to an operation unit 102C.

5. Reproduction of Weather Information Around Air Utilizing Apparatus

FIG. 4 illustrates an example of wide-area weather information. Inwide-area weather information A100 shown in FIG. 4, an area in which theair utilizing apparatus 100 is placed is shown. Reference numeral 1100designates a coastline. The left side of the coastline 1100 in the planeof the drawing is the sea, and the right side thereof is the land. FIG.5 illustrates an example of narrow-area weather information. FIG. 5illustrates an area for which weather simulations are conducted, and thearea is partitioned into a plurality of zones A1 through A15 in order toconduct weather simulations, and each zone corresponds to a calculationgrid. For example, if the grid resolution is 9 km, the calculation zoneis 549 km×549 km. If the grid resolution is 3 km, the calculation zoneis 93 km×93 km. If the grid resolution is 1 km, the calculation zone is549 km×549 km. Accordingly, in these zones A1 through A15, estimationpoints are set in a grid pattern at intervals of 1 km through 9 km inthe north-south direction and the east-west direction.

The air utilizing apparatus 100 is placed, as shown in FIG. 5, and inorder to obtain the temperature or the direction of the wind in the zonein which the air utilizing apparatus 100 is placed, the processor 12generates narrow-area weather information items A1 through A16 from thewide-area weather information A100 by solving partial differentialequations expressing weather information based on weather analysismodels.

FIG. 6 illustrates an example of meteorological field information. Theprocessor 12 conducts computational fluid analysis on the narrow-areaweather information item A16 shown in FIG. 6, thereby calculatingmeteorological field information concerning an area smaller than thezones of narrow-area weather information. After calculating themeteorological field information concerning the zone A15, by using themeteorological field information concerning the zone A15 as an initialvalue, the processor 12 may determine detailed meteorological fieldinformation around the air utilizing apparatus 100 by using fluiddynamic models (CFD models). In this case, the detailed meteorologicalfield information can be determined with a resolution in increments of0.5 m, which is much smaller than the grid resolution (for example, 1km) used in weather simulations.

The meteorological field information concerning the target zone A15 inwhich the air utilizing apparatus 100 is placed can be determined byusing fluid dynamic models. Thus, precise data taking the configurationsof buildings into consideration can be obtained. Examples of fluiddynamic models are K˜ε, LES, and DNS.

It is sufficient that a computer of this embodiment obtains detaileddata of meteorological field information only concerning the targetzone, and thus, it is not necessary to conduct analysis for all thezones A2 through A15 by using CFD models. Accordingly, a lot ofcomputation times taken by conducting analysis using CFD models are notnecessary, and CFD analysis is conducted only for the target zone,thereby improving the precision and decreasing the processing time.

Reference numeral 320 shown in FIG. 6 designates a recirculating flow ofexhaust gas. By conducting CFD analysis, the flow in which heated airdischarged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to andrecirculates in the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus can becalculated and clarified, which has not been clarified by conductingweather simulations. By the use of the recirculating flow, it can bedetermined which degree of temperature margin is to be taken fortemperature data, which will be discussed later. Additionally, therecirculating flow is clarified, and thus, a suitable location of theair utilizing apparatus can be determined.

Moreover, for example, if required observation data, such as temperaturedata and wind direction data, is available since there is, for example,an aerodrome in A3 shown in FIG. 5, a set of items of first narrow-areaweather information may be recalculated by using such data as inputvalues. With this arrangement, it is possible to improve the precisionof weather simulations by using available local data.

Topographical features of the zone A16 in which the air utilizingapparatus is placed may be different from those described in weatherinformation due to a reason of one of land leveling, land use, orequipment installation. Even in such a case, a set of items of firstnarrow-area weather information may be recalculated on the basis oftopographical information reflecting a result of associated one of theland leveling, land use, and equipment installation caused by placingthe air utilizing apparatus. With this arrangement, it is possible toprecisely simulate weather conditions after the air utilizing apparatusis placed.

6. Temperature Cumulative Distribution Around Air Utilizing Apparatus

FIG. 7A illustrates an example of temperature data and an example ofwind speed data obtained from narrow-area weather information. Thenarrow-area weather information is information which has been obtained,for example, over the three years, and data in the year of 2009 is shownas an example in FIG. 7.

FIG. 7B illustrates a temperature cumulative distribution obtained fromtemperature data of narrow-area weather information. FIG. 7C illustratesa temperature exceedance probability distribution obtained fromtemperature data of narrow-area weather information. The processor 12generates such items of data. For example, the temperature obtained byadding a temperature margin 2° C. to the temperature at which thecumulative probability is 50% or higher in the temperature cumulativedistribution, or the temperature obtained by adding a temperature margin2° C. to the temperature at which the exceedance probability is smallerthan 50% in the temperature exceedance probability distribution is setto be the design temperature for designing the temperature utilizingapparatus 100.

FIG. 8 illustrates an example of the relationship between the amount ofliquefied hydrocarbon gas and the design temperature. The designtemperature of the temperature utilizing apparatus 100 is a temperaturefor satisfying a predetermined level of performance. Accordingly, if thetemperature reaches or exceeds the design temperature, the performanceof the temperature utilizing apparatus 100 is likely to be sharplydropped. For example, if, in the example in FIG. 3, the air fin cooler100A is designed under the design temperature shown in FIG. 8, when theoutside air temperature exceeds the design temperature, the amount ofliquefied hydrocarbon gas is sharply decreased, thereby failing tosatisfy a predetermined level of performance. In the weather predictingapparatus according to this embodiment, actual temperatures areprecisely simulated. Thus, even if the air utilizing apparatus 100 isdesigned in an environment without measured data, the design temperaturecan be obtained by predicting the outside air temperature, therebymaking it possible to design an air utilizing apparatus exhibiting adesired level of performance.

7. Wind Rose around Air Utilizing Apparatus

FIG. 9 is a wind rose obtained from wind direction data of narrow-areaweather information. A wind rose is a diagram illustrating thefrequencies of wind directions and wind speeds in certain directions ata certain location over a certain period. The cumulative frequency ishigher as the wind direction data extends further in the radialdirection. The wind speeds are also indicated by mesh patterns. The winddirection having the highest cumulative frequency obtained in this caseis called a prevailing wind direction. In FIG. 9, the prevailing winddirection is denoted by 300. A cardinal direction symbol 310 correspondsto the prevailing wind direction 300. The drawings discussed below showthat the south (S) in the cardinal direction symbol is the prevailingwind direction.

The air utilizing apparatus shown in FIG. 3 is generated on the basis ofthe design temperature or the prevailing wind direction generateddescribed above.

8. Layout in Which Air Utilizing Apparatus is Arranged and Air UtilizingApparatus on the Basis of the Layout

FIGS. 10A and 10B illustrate the relationship between the prevailingwind direction and air fin coolers. Air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2shown in FIG. 10A are arranged with respect to the prevailing winddirection 300 such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the airfin cooler 100A-1 located on the windward side will be sucked by asuction unit of the air fin cooler 100A-2 located on the leeward side.If the air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 are arranged in this manner,the air fin cooler 100A-2 utilizes heated discharged gas as a coolantgas, and thus, it is unable to perform desired heat exchange, therebyfailing to satisfy a predetermined level of performance, as shown inFIG. 8.

Accordingly, an air fin cooler is not arranged on the leeward side inthe wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency in thegenerated wind rose, which would otherwise cause the air fin cooler tosuck exhausted gas. As a result, the above-described inconvenience canbe avoided. That is, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, airfin coolers are arranged in a layout such that gas discharged from adischarge unit located on the windward side will not be sucked by asuction unit located on the leeward side.

The air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 shown in FIG. 10B are arrangedwith respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gasdischarged from the discharge unit of the air fin cooler 100A-1 locatedon the windward side will not be sucked by the suction unit of the airfin cooler 100A-2 located on the leeward side. If the air fin coolers100A-1 and 100A-2 are arranged in this manner, the air fin cooler 100A-2can satisfy a predetermined level of performance. After calculating theprevailing wind direction, the processor 14 generates and outputs layoutdata 400A indicating that the air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 arearranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gasdischarged from the discharge unit of the air fin cooler 100A-1 will notbe sucked by the suction unit of the air fin cooler 100A-2 located onthe leeward side.

FIGS. 11A and 11B illustrate the relationship between the prevailingwind direction and gas turbines. Gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 shown inFIG. 11A are arranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1located on the windward side will be sucked by a suction unit of the gasturbine 100B-2 located on the leeward side. If the gas turbines 100B-1and 100B-2 are arranged in this manner, the gas turbine 100B-2 is likelyto utilize heated discharged gas as a suction gas, and thus, it isunable to obtain a desired output.

Accordingly, a gas turbine is not arranged on the leeward side in thewind direction having the highest cumulative frequency in the generatedwind rose, which would otherwise cause the gas turbine to suck exhaustedgas. As a result, the above-described inconvenience can be avoided. Thatis, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, gas turbines arearranged in a layout such that gas discharged from a discharge unitlocated on the windward side will not be sucked by a suction unitlocated on the leeward side.

The gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 shown in FIG. 11B are arranged withrespect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas dischargedfrom the discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1 located on thewindward side will not be sucked by the suction unit of the gas turbine100B-2 located on the leeward side. If the gas turbines 100B-1 and100B-2 are arranged in this manner, the gas turbine 100B-2 can satisfy apredetermined level of performance. After calculating the prevailingwind direction, the processor 14 generates and outputs layout data 400Bindicating that the gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 are arranged suchthat gas discharged from the discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1will not be sucked by the suction unit of the gas turbine 100B-2 locatedon the leeward side in the prevailing wind direction 300.

FIGS. 12A and 12B illustrate the relationship between the prevailingwind direction and liquefaction plants, each including a gas turbine andan air fin cooler. Liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 shown in FIG.12A are configured such that gas discharged from the air fin coolers100A-1 and 100A-2 is sucked by the gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2,respectively. The liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 shown in FIG.12A are also configured with respect to the prevailing wind direction300 such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the liquefactionplant 100C-1 located on the windward side in the prevailing winddirection 300 is sucked by a suction unit of the liquefaction plant100C-1 located on the leeward side in the prevailing wind direction 300.If the liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 are arranged in thismanner, the liquefaction plant 100C-1 is likely to utilize heateddischarged gas as a coolant gas, and thus, it is unable to obtain adesired level of performance.

Accordingly, a liquefaction plant is not arranged on the leeward side inthe wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency in thegenerated wind rose, which would otherwise cause the liquefaction plantto suck exhausted gas. As a result, the above-described inconveniencecan be avoided. That is, on the basis of the calculated wind direction,liquefaction plants are arranged in a layout such that gas dischargedfrom a discharge unit located on the windward side will not be sucked bya suction unit located on the leeward side.

The liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 shown in FIG. 11B are arrangedwith respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gasdischarged from the discharge unit of the liquefaction plant 100C-1located on the windward side will not be sucked by the suction unit ofthe liquefaction plant 100C-2 located on the leeward side. If theliquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 are arranged in this manner, theliquefaction plants 100C-2 can satisfy a predetermined level ofperformance. After calculating the prevailing wind direction, theprocessor 14 generates and outputs layout data 400C indicating that theliquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 are arranged such that gasdischarged from the discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1 located onthe windward side will not be sucked by the suction unit of theliquefaction plant 100C-2 located on the leeward side.

On the basis of items of the layout data 400A, 400B, 400C, air fincoolers, gas turbines, and liquefaction plants, respectively, aremanufactured or built. Then, the air utilizing apparatus of thisembodiment can satisfy a desired level of performance.

9. Flowchart of Temperature Analysis and Design

FIG. 13 illustrates an example of a flowchart of temperature analysisand design. The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90executes the weather analysis program to perform the followingprocessing. The processor 14 selects, from a weather database includinga plurality of items of weather information having at least temperaturedata related to times and areas, a set of items of weather informationrelated to an area containing a location at which an air utilizingapparatus is placed and a plurality of times over a certain period(S101).

The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes theweather analysis program to perform the following processing. By solvingdifferential equations expressing weather information based on weatheranalysis models by using each item of the weather information as inputdata, a set of items of first narrow-area weather information related toareas smaller than the area corresponding to the above-described weatherinformation is generated (S102).

The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes theweather analysis program to perform processing for selecting, from amongthe set of items of first narrow-area weather information, a set ofitems of second narrow-area weather information concerning an areacontaining the location of the air utilizing apparatus (S103). Theprocessor 14 executes the design temperature calculating program toperform the following processing. In order to calculate the designtemperature of the air utilizing apparatus, the processor 14 generates atemperature cumulative frequency distribution or a temperatureexceedance probability distribution over a certain period by usingtemperature data included in the set of items of second narrow-areaweather information (S104).

In the generation processing (S104), the design temperature may becalculated by one of a step of calculating, from meteorological fieldinformation, the temperature at which the cumulative frequency exceedsat least 50%, a step of calculating, from meteorological fieldinformation, the temperature at which the exceedance probability is atleast smaller than 50%, and a step of adding a temperature margin to thetemperature at which the cumulative frequency exceeds 50% or thetemperature at which the exceedance probability is smaller than 50%.

The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes thecomputational fluid analysis program to perform the followingprocessing. The processor 14 computes the second narrow-area weatherinformation by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations so as tocalculate meteorological field information. Then, the processor 14calculates a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizingapparatus is returned to and recirculates in the suction unit of the airutilizing apparatus (S105). Thus, on the basis of the recirculatingflow, the temperature margin for the temperature obtained by the weathersimulations can be determined.

10. Flowchart of Wind-Direction Analysis and Design

FIG. 14 is a flowchart of temperature analysis and design. Steps S201through S203 shown in FIG. 14 respectively correspond to steps S101through S103 of FIG. 13. The processor 14 of the weather predictingapparatus 90 executes the wind-rose generating program to perform thefollowing processing. In order to determine the direction in which theair utilizing apparatus is placed, the processor 14 calculates a winddirection having the highest cumulative frequency by using winddirection data contained in the set of items of second narrow-areaweather information (S204). Further, the processor 14 of the weatherpredicting apparatus 90 executes the layout output program to performthe following processing. The processor 14 generates, on the basis ofthe calculated wind direction, a layout in which an air utilizingapparatus is arranged in the above-described area such that gasdischarged from a discharge/exhaust unit of the air utilizing apparatuslocated on the windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of theair utilizing apparatus located on the leeward side.

After step (S204), the processor 14 executes the computational fluidanalysis program to perform the following processing. The processor 14computes the second narrow-area weather information by usingthree-dimensional fluid dynamic equations so as to calculatemeteorological field information concerning an area smaller than theareas corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information. Then,the processor 14 calculates, by using the meteorological fieldinformation, a flow in which heated air discharged from the airutilizing apparatus is returned to and recirculates in the suction unitof the air utilizing apparatus (S205). Thus, on the basis of therecirculating flow, the optimal arrangement of a temperature utilizingapparatus can be determined.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described indetail, it should be understood that the various changes, substitutions,and alterations could be made hereto without departing from the spiritand scope of the invention.

1. A weather predicting method for predicting the weather by conductingweather simulations in order to design an air utilizing apparatus whichis placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditionsand which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, and areactant, the weather predicting method comprising: selecting, from aplurality of items of weather information which includes at least winddirection data and which is related to times and areas, a plurality ofsets of the items of weather information related to a plurality of timesover a fixed period concerning a first area containing a location atwhich the air utilizing apparatus is placed; by solving, with the use ofthe selected plurality of sets of the items of weather information asinput data, differential equations expressing the weather informationbased on analysis models used for conducting weather simulations,generating a plurality of sets of the items of first narrow-area weatherinformation related to a plurality of second areas which are disposedwithin the first area and which are smaller than the first area;selecting a set of items of second narrow-area weather informationconcerning the second area containing the location of the air utilizingapparatus from among the generated plurality of sets of the items offirst narrow-area weather information; and calculating a wind directionhaving the highest cumulative frequency by using wind direction datacontained in the set of the items of second narrow-area weatherinformation in order to determine a direction in which the air utilizingapparatus is placed.
 2. The weather predicting method according to claim1, wherein on the basis of the calculated wind direction, a layout inwhich the air utilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gasdischarged from a discharge unit of the air utilizing apparatus locatedon a windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the airutilizing apparatus located on a leeward side is generated.
 3. Theweather predicting method according to claim 1, wherein a step ofgenerating the set of the items of first narrow-area weather informationfurther includes: recalculating the set of the items of firstnarrow-area weather information by using observation data indicating atleast one of a wind direction, a wind speed, and a temperature in thearea corresponding to the weather information.
 4. The weather predictingmethod according to claim 1, further comprising: calculatingmeteorological field information concerning an area smaller than thearea corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information bycomputing the second narrow-area weather information by usingthree-dimensional fluid dynamic equations; and calculating, by using themeteorological field information, a flow in which heated air dischargedfrom the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of theair utilizing apparatus.
 5. The weather predicting method according toclaim 1, further comprising: recalculating, if topographical features ofan area in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed are differentfrom topographical features described in the weather information due toa reason of one of land leveling, land use, and equipment installation,the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information on thebasis of topographical information reflecting a result of associated oneof the land leveling, the land use, and the equipment installation. 6.The weather predicting method according to claim 1, wherein the firstnarrow-area weather information and the second narrow-area weatherinformation are three-dimensional data, and indicate at least one ofwind direction, wind speed, turbulence energy, solar radiation,atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity, and temperature.
 7. Aweather predicting apparatus for predicting the weather by conductingweather simulations in order to design an air utilizing apparatus whichis placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditionsand which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, and areactant, the weather predicting apparatus comprising: a storage sectionthat stores therein a set of items of weather information obtained froma plurality of items of weather information which includes at least winddirection data and which is related to times and areas, the set of itemsof weather information related to a plurality of times over a fixedperiod concerning a first area containing a location at which the airutilizing apparatus is placed; and a processor that selects a pluralityof sets of the items of weather information, generates a set of items offirst narrow-area weather information related to a plurality of secondareas which are disposed within the first area and which are smallerthan the first area by solving, with the use of the selected pluralityof sets of the items of weather information as input data, differentialequations expressing the weather information based on analysis modelsused for conducting weather simulations, selects a set of items ofsecond narrow-area weather information concerning the second areacontaining the location of the air utilizing apparatus from among thegenerated plurality of sets of the items of first narrow-area weatherinformation, and calculates a wind direction having the highestcumulative frequency by using wind direction data contained in the setof the items of second narrow-area weather information in order todetermine a direction in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed. 8.The weather predicting apparatus according to claim 7, wherein on thebasis of the calculated wind direction, the processor generates a layoutin which the air utilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gasdischarged from a discharge unit of the air utilizing apparatus locatedon a windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the airutilizing apparatus located on a leeward side.
 9. The weather predictingapparatus according to claim 7, wherein the processor recalculates theset of the items of first narrow-area weather information by usingobservation data indicating at least one of a wind direction, a windspeed, and a temperature in the area corresponding to the weatherinformation.
 10. The weather predicting apparatus according to claim 7,wherein the processor calculates meteorological field informationconcerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the secondnarrow-area weather information by computing the second narrow-areaweather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations,and calculates, by using the meteorological field information, a flow inwhich heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returnedto the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus.
 11. The weatherpredicting apparatus according to claim 7 wherein the processor:recalculates, if topographical features of an area in which the airutilizing apparatus is placed are different from topographical featuresdescribed in the weather information due to a reason of one of landleveling, land use, and equipment installation, the set of the items offirst narrow-area weather information on the basis of topographicalinformation reflecting a result of associated one of the land leveling,the land use, and the equipment installation.
 12. The weather predictingapparatus according to claim 7, wherein the first narrow-area weatherinformation and the second narrow-area weather information arethree-dimensional data, and indicate at least one of wind direction,wind speed, turbulence energy, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure,precipitation, humidity, and temperature.
 13. An air utilizing apparatuswhich is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weatherconditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source anda reactant, the air utilizing apparatus comprising: a suction unit thatsucks the air; an operation unit that performs one of heat exchange andreaction by using the air sucked by the suction unit; and a dischargeunit that discharges gas emitted through one of operations of heatexchange and reaction, wherein: from a plurality of items of weatherinformation which includes at least wind direction data and which isrelated to times and areas, a plurality of sets of the items of weatherinformation related to a plurality of times over a fixed periodconcerning a first area containing a location at which the air utilizingapparatus is placed are selected; by solving, with the use of theselected plurality of sets of the items of weather information as inputdata, differential equations expressing the weather information based onanalysis models used for conducting weather simulations, a set of itemsof first narrow-area weather information related to a plurality ofsecond areas which are disposed within the first area and which aresmaller than the first area is generated; a set of items of secondnarrow-area weather information concerning an area containing thelocation of the air utilizing apparatus is selected from among thegenerated plurality of sets of the items of first narrow-area weatherinformation; and the air utilizing apparatus is placed in the area onthe basis of a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequencycalculated by using wind direction data contained in the set of theitems of second narrow-area weather information.
 14. The air utilizingapparatus according to claim 13, wherein the air utilizing apparatus isplaced such that gas discharged from the discharge unit located on awindward side indicated in the wind direction data included in the setof the items of second narrow-area weather information will not besucked by the suction unit located on a leeward side indicated in thewind direction data included in the set of the items of secondnarrow-area weather information.
 15. The air utilizing apparatusaccording to claim 13, wherein: meteorological field informationconcerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the secondnarrow-area weather information is calculated by computing the secondnarrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamicequations, and by using the meteorological field information, a flow inwhich heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returnedto the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus is calculated; andthe air utilizing apparatus is placed such that the heated airdischarged from the air utilizing apparatus will not be returned to thesuction unit.